Research Notebook is a collection of articles from the finance team. We bring together research from academia, industry, and our original work to apply it to your everyday financial questions.

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FutureAdvisor Research Notebook

Big

Go against the flow

Josh_square
Josh Tokle (01/30/2012)
"Inspired by Kevin Kingsbury's piece at MarketBeat, we decided to take a look at the flow of capital in and out of asset classes over time to see how good investers are at predicting market movements. In his piece, Kingsbury notes a spike in outflows from long-term mutual funds just before a late November market rally, citing ICI for his data on money flow. When we saw they had a downloadable spreadsheet with historical data going back to January 2007, we decided to look into the ability of investors to time the market. "
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Past Articles


Compare_growth_300

You're young: seek out higher returns by investing in small cap and value stocks

Josh Tokle (10/31/2011)
"Over the last 80 years, small cap and value stocks have outperformed their counterparts (large cap and growth stocks) by an order of magnitude. This sup..."
Categories: Investment, Methodologies
Return_needed_300

Active management has to beat the index year after year just to break even after taxes

Josh Tokle (10/12/2011)
"You see an ad for a top-performing mutual fund boasting the previous year's high return. Think twice before buying. With active management you're placin..."
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Compoundingreturnsmed

Non-intuitive Examples of Compounding Returns

Yun Zhang, Bo Lu (02/09/2011)
"It's almost better to invest for a few years while you're young and then not save a dime ever again, than to start late and save up all your life. Here'..."
Categories: Investment, Portfolio, Retirement
24_7_analyst

What if your portfolio had its own 24/7 analyst?

Bo Lu (07/30/2010)
"That's us. Considering buying more shares of that mutual fund you bought last week? FutureAdvisor will tell you if there are less expensive funds (b..."
Categories: Portfolio, Methodologies
Whywearedatadriven

Why we are data driven

Bo Lu (06/14/2010)
"Growing up, I quickly figured out which of the neighborhood kids were telling the truth and which ones were making stuff up. The difference was proof. T..."
Categories: Investment, Methodologies
Tax_loss_harvesting_300

Capital losses: should you be thankful?

Josh Tokle (11/18/2011)
"It's the end of the year: last chance to take stock of your 2011 tax obligations. As an investor, you should make particular note of any realized capita..."
Categories: Investment, Methodologies
Med

Fama, French, and beyond: greater diversification means lower risk for your expected return

Josh Tokle (10/27/2011)
"With higher risk comes higher rewards. For investors, the higher reward comes in the form of a higher expected return. If you recognize different source..."
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Early_rich_small

The Math: Retire Young or Retire Rich?

Josh Tokle (06/23/2011)
"In our hypothetical example, working an additional 3 years longer leads Alice to be able to spend $12,000 more per year. Retiring early or retiring late..."
Categories: Investment, Retirement
Picking_investments_med

Picking Investments: Only Two Things Matter

Bo Lu (01/07/2011)
"It’s actually not that complicated At last count there are something like 23,000 mutual funds and ETFs available to US investors. Picking from among ..."
Categories: Investment, Methodologies
Medianamericanpaid

The median American paid about $1,000 in mutual fund fees last year

Bo Lu (07/28/2010)
"I always wondered what high-fee mutual funds were extracting from each and every family, on average. A little back of the envelope math: From the US Fed..."
Categories: Investment

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